domingo, 12 de junio de 2016

Example 1: Lionel Messi


Example 1: Lionel Messi


That's the easiest case as he is a one-club man. 

 

First, we take his five best seasons in terms of goals tally.

Season
Games
Goals
2009-10
53
47
2010-11
55
53
2011-12
60
73
2012-13
50
60
2014-15
57
58

291 goals / 275 games = 1.058 goal per game = 105.8% (Average)

Then we imagine that every team of every eras and national championships made one goal per game to put everybody on the same level using the table 1.

La Liga
Coefficient (goal per team)
2009-10
1.35
2014-15
1.33

As Messi five best seasons extend from 2010 to 2015 we make an average coefficient between season 2009-10 (1.35) and season 2014-15 (1.33) that we apply to his average goal per game (105.8)

(1.35 + 1.33) / 2 = 1.34 (final coefficient)

105.8 / 1.34 = 78.9 (Average P)





Second we do the same with international games

50 goals / 107 games = 0.467 goal per game = 46.7% (Average)

The coefficient used for international goals is made with the help of table 2, taking into account all the competitions since he began his international career in 2005 (World Cup qualifications, World Cup, Copa America). The World Cup qualifications count for double as there are many more games than the major tournaments. So, for Messi we get:


World Cup/ Qualifications (Q)
Coefficient
Copa America
Coefficient
2006 Q
1.45


2006
1.15
2007
1.65
2010 Q
1.37


2010
1.13
2011
1.04
2014 Q
1.40


2014
1.33
2015
1.13

((Qualifications World Cup) x 2 + World Cup + Copa America) / 12

((1.45 + 1.37 + 1.4) x 2 + (1.15 + 1.13 + 1.33) + (1.65 + 1.04 + 1.13)) / 12 = 1.3225

Final coefficient: 1.3225

46.7 / 1.3225 = 35.3 (Average P)





Third, we make an average between club result and international result as they weigh 50 % each on the final result.

(105.8 + 46.7) / 2 = 76.3 (Average)

(78.9 + 35.3) / 2 = 57.1 (Average P)

All the results appear in the main table as follow

Players (AP)

Club
A - AP
National Team
A - AP
Average
(A)
Average P
(AP)
Lionel Messi (87)
105.8 – 78.9
46.7 – 35.3
76.3
57.1


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