domingo, 12 de junio de 2016

Example 2: Zlatan Ibrahimovic


Example 2: Zlatan Ibrahimovic


That's a more complicated case as Ibra is the opposite of Leo (Messi). Ibra is a nomade moving from club to club and from country to country.



First, we take his five best seasons in terms of goals tally.

Season
Games
Goals
2008-09 (Inter)
47
29
2011-12 (AC Milan)
44
35
2012-13 (PSG)
46
35
2013-14 (PSG)
46
41
2015-16 (PSG)
51
50

We have to take into account that the Ligue 1 Ibra is playing in is not as competitive as the others four main championships (la Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Premier League). It's too easy for Ibra and PSG to dominate, and that's why la Ligue 1 worth only 75% these years. Let's focus on the PSG years

Season
Games
Goals France
Goals Europe
Goals
2012-13 (PSG)
46
32
3
35
2013-14 (PSG)
46
29
12
41
2015-16 (PSG)
51
45
5
50

The goals made at national level (Goals France) worth only 75% as penality for “weak championship”. So we get:

(Goals France) x 75% + (Goals Europe) + (Goals Italy) / Games

(32 + 29 + 45) x 0.75 + (3 + 12 + 5) + (29 + 35) / (46 + 46 + 51 + 47 + 44) = 69.87%

69.87 = 69.9 (Average)

Then we imagine that every team of every eras and national championships made one goal per game to put everybody on the same level using the table 1.

Serie A
Coefficient (goal per team)
2009-10
1.30
2014-15
1.35

As Ibra season at AC Milan (2011-12) falls in the middle, we make an average between coefficient season 2009-10 (1.30) and season 2014-15 (1.35). For one year difference for his Inter season (2008-09) we don't bother and take the coefficient season 2009-10 (1.30) into account.

Ligue 1
Coefficient (goal per team)
2009-10
1.17
2014-15
1.25

The 3 seasons at PSG fall around season 2014-15 on average, but in the middle of season 2009-10 (1.17) and 2014-15 (1.25) too, for his first 2 years (2012-14). So we calculate the average coefficient giving the season 2014-15 twice as much weigh than the season 2009-10.

1.17 + (1.25 x 2) / 3 = 1.2233 (coefficient for PSG)

Then we mix the coefficients (Italy and France) to get to the final coefficient.

(Inter + AC Milan) + PSG (3 years)) / 5

((1.30 + (1.30 + 1.35) / 2) + (1.2233 x 3)) / 5 = 1.2589 (final coefficient)

 69.9 / 1.2589 = 55.5 (Average P)





Second we do the same with international games

62 goals / 113 games = 0.5486 goal per game = 0.549 = 54.9% (Average)

The coefficient used for international goals is made with the help of table 2, taking into account all the competitions since he began his international career in 2001 (World Cup qualifications, World Cup, Eurocopa qualifications, Eurocopa). The World Cup and Eurocopa qualifications count for double as there are many more games than the major tournaments. So, for Ibra we get:


World Cup / Qualifications (Q)
Coefficient
Eurocopa / Qualifications (Q)
Coefficient
2002 Q
1.58


2002
1.26
2004 Q
1.35
2006 Q
1.45
2004
1.24
2006
1.15
2008 Q
1.37
2010 Q
1.37
2008
1.24
2010
1.13
2012 Q
1.35
2014 Q
1.40
2012
1.22
2014
1.33
2016 Q
1.30

((Qualifications World Cup) x 2 + World Cup + ( Qualifications Eurocopa) x 2 + Eurocopa) / 23

((1.58 + 1.45 + 1.37 + 1.4) x 2 + (1.26 + 1.15 + 1.13 + 1.33) + (1.35 + 1.37 + 1.35 + 1.3) x 2 + (1.24 + 1.24 + 1.22)) / 23 = 1.3439 (final coefficient)


54.9 / 1.3439 = 40.8 (Average P)





Third, we make an average between club result and international result as they weigh 50 % each on the final result.

(69.9 + 54.9) / 2 = 62.4 (Average)

(55.5 + 40.8) / 2 = 48.1 (Average P)

All the results appear in the main table as follow

Players (AP)

Club
A - AP
National Team
A - AP
Average
(A)
Average P
(AP)
Zlatan Ibrahimovic (81)
69.9 – 55.5
54.9 – 40.8
62.4
48.1


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