Example
2: Zlatan Ibrahimovic
That's
a more complicated case as Ibra is the opposite of Leo (Messi). Ibra
is a nomade moving from club to club and from country to country.
First,
we take his five best seasons in terms of goals tally.
|
Season
|
Games
|
Goals
|
|
2008-09
(Inter)
|
47
|
29
|
|
2011-12
(AC Milan)
|
44
|
35
|
|
2012-13
(PSG)
|
46
|
35
|
|
2013-14
(PSG)
|
46
|
41
|
|
2015-16
(PSG)
|
51
|
50
|
We have to take into account
that the Ligue 1 Ibra is playing in is not as competitive as the
others four main championships (la Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and
Premier League). It's too easy for Ibra and PSG to dominate, and
that's why la Ligue 1 worth only 75% these years. Let's focus on the
PSG years
|
Season
|
Games
|
Goals
France
|
Goals
Europe
|
Goals
|
|
2012-13
(PSG)
|
46
|
32
|
3
|
35
|
|
2013-14
(PSG)
|
46
|
29
|
12
|
41
|
|
2015-16
(PSG)
|
51
|
45
|
5
|
50
|
The goals made at national
level (Goals France) worth only 75% as penality for “weak
championship”. So we get:
(Goals
France) x 75% + (Goals Europe) + (Goals
Italy) / Games
(32 + 29
+ 45) x 0.75 + (3 + 12 + 5) + (29 + 35)
/ (46 + 46 + 51 + 47 + 44) = 69.87%
69.87 = 69.9 (Average)
Then
we imagine that every team of every eras and national championships
made one goal per game to put everybody on the same level using the
table 1.
|
Serie
A
|
Coefficient
(goal per team)
|
|
2009-10
|
1.30
|
|
2014-15
|
1.35
|
As
Ibra season at AC Milan (2011-12) falls in the middle, we make an
average between coefficient season 2009-10 (1.30) and season 2014-15
(1.35). For one year difference for his Inter season (2008-09) we
don't bother and take the coefficient season 2009-10 (1.30) into
account.
|
Ligue
1
|
Coefficient
(goal per team)
|
|
2009-10
|
1.17
|
|
2014-15
|
1.25
|
The
3 seasons at PSG fall around season 2014-15 on average, but in the
middle of season 2009-10 (1.17) and 2014-15 (1.25) too, for his first
2 years (2012-14). So we calculate the average coefficient giving the
season 2014-15 twice as much weigh than the season 2009-10.
1.17
+ (1.25 x 2) / 3 = 1.2233 (coefficient for PSG)
Then
we mix the coefficients (Italy and France) to get to the final
coefficient.
(Inter
+ AC Milan) + PSG
(3 years)) / 5
((1.30
+ (1.30 + 1.35) / 2) + (1.2233
x 3))
/ 5 = 1.2589 (final coefficient)
69.9
/ 1.2589 = 55.5 (Average P)
Second
we do the same with international games
62
goals / 113 games = 0.5486 goal per game = 0.549 = 54.9%
(Average)
The
coefficient used for international goals is made with the help of
table 2, taking into account all the competitions since he began his
international career in 2001 (World Cup qualifications, World Cup,
Eurocopa qualifications, Eurocopa). The World Cup and Eurocopa
qualifications count for double as there are many more games than the
major tournaments. So, for Ibra we get:
|
World
Cup / Qualifications (Q)
|
Coefficient
|
Eurocopa
/ Qualifications (Q)
|
Coefficient
|
|
2002 Q
|
1.58
|
|
|
|
2002
|
1.26
|
2004 Q
|
1.35
|
|
2006
Q
|
1.45
|
2004
|
1.24
|
|
2006
|
1.15
|
2008 Q
|
1.37
|
|
2010
Q
|
1.37
|
2008
|
1.24
|
|
2010
|
1.13
|
2012 Q
|
1.35
|
|
2014
Q
|
1.40
|
2012
|
1.22
|
|
2014
|
1.33
|
2016 Q
|
1.30
|
((Qualifications
World Cup) x 2 + World Cup + (
Qualifications Eurocopa) x 2 + Eurocopa)
/ 23
((1.58
+ 1.45 + 1.37 + 1.4) x 2 + (1.26
+ 1.15 + 1.13 + 1.33) + (1.35 +
1.37 + 1.35 + 1.3) x 2 + (1.24 + 1.24 + 1.22))
/ 23 = 1.3439 (final coefficient)
54.9
/ 1.3439 = 40.8 (Average P)
Third, we make an
average between club result and international result as they weigh 50
% each on the final result.
(69.9 + 54.9) / 2 = 62.4
(Average)
(55.5 + 40.8) / 2 = 48.1
(Average P)
All the results appear in the
main table as follow
|
Players (AP)
|
Club
A - AP
|
National Team
A - AP
|
Average
(A)
|
Average P
(AP)
|
|
Zlatan Ibrahimovic (81) |
69.9 – 55.5
|
54.9 – 40.8
|
62.4
|
48.1
|
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