domingo, 12 de junio de 2016

Example 3: Pelé


Example 3: Pelé


The case of Pelé is the most complicated for having played in the “fragmented” Brazilian championship. Before competing in the Brazilian championship, all teams have to compete in state championships to qualify for the next step. Playing for Santos, Pelé competed in the Paulista championship.



First, we take his five best seasons in terms of goals tally.

Season
Games
Goals
1958
46
66
1959
43
53
1961
38
62
1963
36
51
1965
48
64

Pelé goals tally are impressive. But the reality is that many of his goals were scored in the Paulista championship, a regional championship where the bottom half of the table would be in 2nd division in a national championship. The goals Pelé scored in Paulista championship worth only 66.66% for being a weak championship.


Season
Games
Goals Paulista
Goals National / Continental
Goals
1958
46
58
8
66
1959
43
45
8
53
1961
38
47
15
62
1963
36
22
29
51
1965
48
49
15
64

(Goals Paulista) x 66.66 + (Goals National/Continental) / Games

(58 + 45 + 47 + 22 + 49) x 0.6666 + (8 + 8 + 15 + 29 + 15) / (46 + 43 + 38 + 36 + 48) = 105.3%

105% = 105 (Average)

Then we imagine that every team of every eras and national championships made one goal per game to put everybody on the same level using the table 1.



Season
Coefficient Paulista
Coefficient National
1955
1.92
2.00
1960
1.72
1.54
1965
1.52
1.77

So we have to calculate first the final coefficient Paulista and National, and then mix them up to get the final coefficient.

Pelé season 1958 is in the middle of 1955 and 1960, so we make an average. For Pelé seasons 1959 and 1961 we take year 1960 which is right in the middle. For Pelé season 1963, we make an average betwteen years 1960 and 1965. And finally, for Pelé season 1965, it's an easy guess (year 1965).

Final coefficient Paulista:

(1958 + (1959 + 1960) + (1963) + 1965) / 5

((1.92 + 1.72) / 2 + (1.72 x 2) + (1.72 + 1.52) / 2 + 1.52) / 5 = 1.68

Final coefficient National:

(1958 + (1959 + 1960) + (1963) + 1965) / 5

((2 + 1.54) / 2 + (1.54 x 2) + (1.54 + 1.77) /2 + 1.77) / 5 = 1.655


To calculate the final coefficient fairly, we have to take into account the number of games played in the Paulista championship and National/Continental championship.


Paulista
National / Continental
1958
38
8
1959
32
11
1961
26
12
1963
19
12
1965
30
11
Total
145
54
%
100%
37%


Final coefficient:

(1.68 x 100%) + (1.655 x 37%) / 137% = 1.6732

105 / 1.6732 = 62.7 (Average P)





Second we do the same with international games

77 goals / 91 games = 0.846 = 84.6% (Average)

The coefficient used for international goals is made with the help of table 2, taking into account all the competitions since he began his international career in 1957 (World Cup qualifications, World Cup, Copa America). The World Cup qualifications count for double as there are many more games than the major tournaments. So, for Pelé we get:


World Cup/ Qualifications (Q)
Coefficient
Copa America
Coefficient
1958 Q
1.91


1958
1.8
1959
2.00
1962 Q
1.76


1962
1.39
1963
2.16
1966 Q
1.54


1966
1.39
1967
1.63
1970 Q
1.57


1970
1.48



((Qualifications World Cup) x 2 + World Cup + Copa America) / 15

((1.91 + 1.76 + 1.54 + 1.57) x 2 + (1.8 + 1.39 + 1.39 + 1.48) + (2 + 2.16 + 1.63) / 15 = 1.694 (final coefficient)

84.6 / 1.694 = 49.9 (Average P)





Third, we make an average between club result and international result as they weigh 50 % each on the final result.


(105 + 84.6) / 2 = 94.8 (Average)

(62.7 + 49.9) / 2 = 56.3 (Average P)

All the results appear in the main table as follow

Players (AP)

Club
A - AP
National Team
A - AP
Average
(A)
Average P
(AP)
Pelé (40)
105 – 62.7
84.6 – 49.9
94.8
56.3


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